06 · Sensitivity
Sensitivity: price, FX and payment timing
Arnot stays profitable down to $98/t or R13.44/$. Losses need a large price fall and a stronger rand at the same time.
Exhibit 6.1 · Price × FX
Arnot net margin, R/t, after finance costs
Click any cell to load that price and exchange rate into the scenario.
| $/t \ R/$ | R15.50 | R16.00 | R16.58 | R17.00 | R17.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | |||||
| $111 | |||||
| $121 | |||||
| $131 |
Note · Outlined cell is the current scenario. Finance cost held at R8.61/t. Losses appear only if the price falls ~$20/t and the rand strengthens to R16.00/$ or below at the same time.
Exhibit 6.2 · Payment timing
Unconstrained peak exposure by LC payment lag
A lag over ~15 days would push exposure past the limit. A draw-stop (no new cycle until the prior LC has paid) keeps Lancaster inside the limit; the cost is shipment timing, not credit loss.
Exhibits 6.3–6.4 · Stress tests
Rail shortfall and price falls
Exhibit 6.3
Transnet rail performance
Fewer railings mean less drawn; the fee stays intact.
| Railings | Avg drawn | Lender IRR | Arnot net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% of plan | R25.7m | 21.3% | R227m |
| 80% of plan | R20.6m | 22.5% | R181m |
| 60% of plan | R15.4m | 24.7% | R136m |
| 40% of plan | R10.3m | 29.3% | R90m |
Exhibit 6.4
Cargo cover under price falls
FOB value of coal in transit ÷ funds advanced.
| Price fall | RB2 price | Cover | Arnot R/t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | $121/t | 3.10x | R378 |
| −10% | $109/t | 2.79x | R178 |
| −20% | $97/t | 2.48x | (R22) |
| −30% | $85/t | 2.17x | (R221) |
| −40% | $73/t | 1.86x | (R421) |
Note · Even when Arnot's margin turns negative, Lancaster's tranche is still covered by the cargo and repaid from the LC: a price fall erodes the borrower's profit before it reaches the lender's security.